The 2026 US midterm elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment, with Democrats aiming to capitalize on their recent setbacks and flip key seats in the House and Senate. The primary elections across the country have set the stage for high-stakes general election contests, reflecting the nation's desire for change and the enduring influence of Donald Trump on the Republican Party.
One of the most closely watched races is in New Jersey, where Democrat Rebecca Bennett, a former healthcare executive and US Navy veteran, has been nominated to challenge Republican Congressman Tom Kean Jr. in a suburban swing district. The race has taken on renewed importance due to Kean Jr.'s mysterious three-month absence from Congress, raising questions among constituents and colleagues. This contest highlights the Democratic Party's strategy of targeting swing districts and the potential impact of personal scandals on Republican incumbents.
In Iowa, Democrats are spending big in rematches in districts that produced some of the closest House races in the country two years ago. A moderate challenger, Josh Turek, has given Democrats hope in the US Senate race, where incumbent Joni Ernst decided not to run. Turek's personal story, including his battle with spina bifida and Paralympic gold medal, adds a layer of appeal to his moderate message, potentially grabbing voters in a challenging environment for Republicans.
The California governor's race is also up in the air, with early results showing a tight contest between Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden administration official, and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality endorsed by Trump. The nonpartisan primary system in California means the top two vote-getters advance, regardless of party, setting the stage for a competitive general election.
The primary elections have also tested the impact of new maps in California, which were drawn to potentially help Democrats gain five seats in response to the GOP's efforts in Texas. The internal fights within the Democratic Party, ranging from ideology to economic populism and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have influenced several races, including the highly coveted seat once held by Nancy Pelosi.
Despite the Democratic Party's efforts, some Republican contests could pose challenges. In New Mexico, Republican Greg Cunningham, who faced no formal opposition, will take on Congressman Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat, in a district that voted for Trump in 2024 but sent a Democrat to the House. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee criticized Cunningham, while Vasquez was described as a "trusted leader."
In Montana, Republicans have rallied around Aaron Flint, Trump's choice to succeed Representative Ryan Zinke, despite the race being rated as "likely Republican." Flint's endorsements from prominent figures, including the president, have bolstered his campaign. However, Democrats sense an opportunity due to Trump's falling popularity, with the race yet to be called as of Tuesday night.
The Montana Senate race has also seen Republican inroads, with Kurt Alme rising to the top of the field. However, he will face a strong challenge from independent Seth Bodnar in November. Outside spending by Republicans in the Democratic primary aimed to boost a Democrat who could split votes away from Bodnar, but the outcome remains uncertain.
In South Dakota, Marty Jackley, with Trump's endorsement, won the Republican primary for the Senate race, positioning himself to become the state's lone representative in Congress. This race highlights the enduring influence of Trump on the Republican Party and the potential for a shift in the state's political landscape.
The 2026 midterms are expected to be a test of the nation's political mood, with voters grappling with various issues since 2024. The primary elections have provided a glimpse into the strategies and challenges facing both parties, setting the stage for a highly competitive and consequential election cycle.
